A recent study, published this week, has revealed that a significant portion of the New York City metropolitan area is gradually subsiding, increasing the region’s vulnerability to flooding.

Conducted by a team of scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and Rutgers University in New Jersey, the study, published in Science Advances, indicates that the metropolitan area is experiencing an average annual subsidence rate of 0.06 inches.

This study coincided with New York State Governor Kathy Hochul’s declaration of a state of emergency on Friday due to heavy rainfall triggering flash floods in Manhattan, Staten Island, and Brooklyn.

The scientists conducted their research by examining the vertical land motion of the region from 2016 to 2023, closely monitoring the extent to which the land sinks or rises. To accomplish this, they employed interferometric synthetic aperture radar technology to analyze the region’s topography.

In a report published on Wednesday, Sally Younger from NASA’s Earth Science News Team, said,”Much of the motion they observed occurred in areas where prior modifications to Earth’s surface – such as land reclamation and the construction of landfills – made the ground looser and more compressible beneath subsequent buildings.”

In a similar vein, a study published in May by oceanologists from the University of Rhode Island in conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey pointed out that several prominent buildings in New York City are contributing to subsidence.

The study also highlights LaGuardia Airport, which is subsiding at a rate of approximately 0.15 inches per year. To address longstanding issues and mitigate significant flooding risks, the airport is presently undergoing an $8 billion renovation, as indicated on its website. Located near Flushing Bay in Queens, the international airport faces sinking challenges.

Beyond New York City, the study identifies the communities of Newark, Kearny, and Harrison in New Jersey as experiencing subsidence. However, specific rates of sinking for these locations were not provided in the study.

Researchers emphasize that subsidence poses a significant threat to the metropolitan area. They note that the sea level at The Battery, a park in Manhattan, rose at a rate of 0.12 inches per year during the 1900s, and more recently, it has accelerated to 0.17 inches per year.

According to NASA’s sea level prediction tool, scientists anticipate a sea level rise of 0.04 inches by the year 2100. In light of these trends, the scientists underscore that the city has long grappled with coastal flooding resulting from hurricanes and extratropical storms, and the destructive potential of storm surges associated with severe weather events is escalating due to ongoing sea level rise, as exemplified by Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

The study offers a mixed perspective on the fate of the nation’s most populous city. Notably, the neighborhoods of East Williamsburg in Brooklyn and Woodside in Queens are experiencing upward movement.

Scientists attributed the rising rate in Brooklyn’s East Williamsburg to the drainage of oil from Newton Creek, situated between Queens and Brooklyn, and flowing into the East River.

However, the overall outlook for much of New York City is less promising. According to oceanologists and researchers who conducted a study in May, the city is home to over 1 million buildings, collectively weighing nearly 1.7 trillion pounds. The study indicated that the city is subsiding at a rate ranging from 0.03 to 0.08 inches per year.

The study pointed out signs of subsidence in parts of lower Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and Long Island.

Researchers concluded that every additional high-rise constructed in a coastal, river, or lakefront location contributes to future flood risks, necessitating the inclusion of “mitigation strategies.”